AMID THE GAZA AND IRAN CONFLICT, RUSSIA AND CHINA BEGIN FILLING THE VACUUM OF WESTERN INFLUENCE


📌 OPENING – THE VACUUM IS REAL

The United States is not leaving the Middle East. But it is retreating — slowly, unevenly, but unmistakably.

Every day that the US is distracted by the Eastern European crisis, every day that Gaza dominates headlines, every day that Iran and Israel exchange threats, the American footprint in the region shrinks. Not dramatically. Not all at once. But the trend is clear.

Into this vacuum, two powers are moving: Russia and China.

Not as allies — they have their own competing interests. But as opportunists who see the same opening and are rushing to fill it before the other.

Russia brings military muscle, intelligence cooperation, and a willingness to work with any regime, no matter how brutal. China brings economic firepower, infrastructure investment, and a long-term vision that the West has lost.

Together — and separately — they are reshaping the Middle East while the world watches Gaza.

This is the tenth article in Cakranegara News' 20-part series on the Middle East crisis. We examine how Russia and China are exploiting the current chaos to expand their influence, what they have already achieved, and what this means for the future of the region — and for Indonesia.


📜 CHAPTER 1 – THE VACUUM: WHAT THE WEST HAS LOST

To understand what Russia and China are gaining, we must first understand what the West has lost.

Western Asset Pre-2023 Status Current Status (2026) Change

US military bases Dominant throughout region Still dominant, but bases in Iraq, Syria, Saudi under pressure SHRINKING

US diplomatic leverage Unquestioned Questioned; Arab states now hedge with Russia and China DECLINING

European trade influence Significant (Germany, France, Italy) Reduced by self-sanctioning on Russia and distraction DECLINING

Western narrative dominance Near-total in mainstream media Challenged by Al Jazeera, RT, CGTN, and social media COLLAPSING

Trust in US guarantees High (Gulf states felt protected) Eroding (Afghanistan withdrawal, Ukraine limits) ERODING

"The United States is not leaving the Middle East. But the Middle East is leaving the United States — slowly, reluctantly, but surely." — Gulf diplomat, 2025


🔥 CHAPTER 2 – RUSSIA'S MIDDLE EAST RESURGENCE

Russia never fully left the Middle East. But since 2015 (Syria intervention) and especially since 2022 (the Eastern European crisis), Russia has accelerated its return.

What Russia has achieved since 2023:

Achievement Date Strategic Significance

Permanent bases in Syria Tartus (naval), Hmeimim (air) Russia's only Mediterranean naval facility; power projection

Naval logistics center in Sudan 2024 agreement Red Sea access; Bab el-Mandeb monitoring

Arms sales to Egypt, Algeria, Iraq Ongoing Diversifying away from US suppliers

S-400 sales to Turkiye, India Already delivered Creates long-term dependency on Russian maintenance

Coordination with Iran Expanding Land bridge to Syria; intelligence sharing

OPEC+ co-leadership With Saudi Arabia Energy market influence

How Russia is exploiting the current crisis:

Crisis Russian Exploitation

Gaza war Positioned as mediator; invited Hamas; blamed US for civilian deaths

Red Sea crisis Promoted Arctic shipping route as alternative; let US handle security

Iran-Israel tensions Provided Iran with jamming technology; called for "restraint" without condemning Iran

US distraction Expanded Sudan base; increased arms sales; deepened Iran ties

What Russia wants:

Goal How It Serves Russia

Multipolar world Reduces US dominance; elevates Russia's status

Permanent presence Bases in Syria, Sudan, Libya (potential)

Energy influence OPEC+ coordination keeps oil prices high

Weakening NATO Turkiye as a wedge; Greece as a competitor

"Russia does not need to defeat the United States. It only needs tooutlast it. And in the Middle East, Russia has more patience."


🇨🇳 CHAPTER 3 – CHINA'S QUIET ADVANCE

China's approach to the Middle East is different from Russia's. Beijing does not send troops. It does not build military bases (yet). China's weapon is economics — and it is devastatingly effective.

What China has achieved since 2023:

Achievement Date Strategic Significance

Brokered Saudi-Iran normalization March 2023 Demonstrated diplomatic credibility that US lacked

Increased oil imports from Gulf 2023-2026 Locked in long-term supply contracts

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects Ongoing Ports, railways, telecommunications across region

Renminbi (RMB) settlement for oil Expanding Reducing dollar dominance

Arms sales to UAE, Saudi Limited but growing Diversifying away from US suppliers

Diplomatic engagement with Iran Strategic partnership Counterweight to US pressure

How China is exploiting the current crisis:

Crisis Chinese Exploitation

Gaza war Called for ceasefire; avoided taking sides; positioned as responsible power

Red Sea crisis Sent naval escort; protected Chinese shipping; showed flag

Iran-Israel tensions Maintained relations with both; offered mediation

US distraction Expanded BRI projects; signed new trade deals; deepened Gulf ties

What China wants:

Goal How It Serves China

Energy security Secure access to oil and gas for continued growth

Economic corridors BRI connects Asia, Middle East, Europe

Dedollarization Reduce vulnerability to US sanctions

Global influence Challenge US dominance without direct confrontation

"China plays the long game. Russia plays the short game. Together, they are complementary — and dangerous for the West."


🤝 CHAPTER 4 – RUSSIA AND CHINA: COOPERATION OR COMPETITION?

The relationship between Russia and China in the Middle East is complex: tactical cooperation, strategic competition.

Area Cooperation Competition

Syria Both support Assad China wants reconstruction contracts; Russia wants military dominance

Iran Both oppose US sanctions Both compete for Iranian oil, arms deals, influence

Gulf states Both court Saudi, UAE Both want investment, arms sales, trade

Diplomacy Both challenge US-led order Each wants to be seen as leader of the Global South

"Russia and China are not allies. They areco-belligerents against the US-led order. When that order falls, their competition will begin."


🌏 CHAPTER 5 – WHY THIS MATTERS FOR INDONESIA & NTB

Indonesia is not a Middle Eastern country. But Indonesia is a Global South power that must navigate between the US, Russia, and China.

Impact on Indonesia Mechanism Severity

More diplomatic leverage US, Russia, China all court Indonesia ✅ POSITIVE

More complex trade environment Competing standards, payment systems ⚠️ CHALLENGING

Potential for supply chain relocation Companies leaving China may come to ASEAN ✅ OPPORTUNITY

Risk of being caught between powers US-China tensions could force choices ❌ RISK


For NTB:

Sector Impact

Investment KEK Mandalika could attract investment from multiple powers competing for Indonesia's favor

Tourism Chinese, Russian, and Western tourists all potential markets

Trade Diversification reduces dependence on any single market

What Indonesia should do:

Recommendation Why

Maintain "free and active" policy Do not choose sides between US, China, Russia

Deepen ties with all powers Economic, diplomatic, security — diversify

Position as mediator Indonesia's voice matters in Global South

Prepare for multipolar world Competing standards, currencies, alliances


🔮 CONCLUSION – THE VACUUM WILL BE FILLED

The United States is not leaving the Middle East. But it is no longer the only game in town.

Russia and China are filling the vacuum left by Western distraction, Western hypocrisy, and Western decline. Not as allies — but as rivals who happen to share a common enemy.

For the Middle East, this means more options — but also more complexity. For the United States, this means losing influence it once took for granted. For Indonesia, this means navigating a world with multiple power centers — a challenge, but also an opportunity.

For the readers of Cakranegara News, the lesson is to watch — not just the bombs in Gaza, but the quiet moves in Moscow, Beijing, Riyadh, and Tehran.

Because the future of the Middle East is not being written only in Gaza. It is being written in every capital where Russia and China are welcomed as the West retreats.


✅ DESKRIPSI PENELUSURAN – ENGLISH (149 KARAKTER)


"Russia and China are filling the vacuum of Western influence in the Middle East. Analysis of their gains, strategies, and what this means for Indonesia."


📚 REFERENCES (15 SOURCES)

1. Chatham House – "Russia's Middle East Resurgence: 2023-2026" (2026)

2. Carnegie Endowment – "China's Quiet Advance in the Middle East" (2025)

3. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) – The Military Balance 2026

4. Reuters – "Russia Expands Naval Presence in Sudan" (2025)

5. Bloomberg – "China's Belt and Road in the Middle East" (2026)

6. Foreign Affairs – "The New Great Game in the Middle East" (2025)

7. The Economist – "Russia and China: Filling the Vacuum" (2026)

8. South China Morning Post – "Saudi-Iran Deal Brokered by China" (2023)

9. Al Jazeera – "Russia's Role in the Gaza War" (2025)

10. Wall Street Journal – "US Retreat, Russian Advance in Syria" (2026)

11. Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs – "Free and Active Policy in a Multipolar Era" (2026)

12. Council on Foreign Relations – "China's Middle East Strategy" (2025)

13. Jane's Defence Weekly – "Russian Arms Sales to Egypt" (2025)

14. Middle East Institute – "The Russia-China-Iran Triangle" (2026)

15. RAND Corporation – "The Future of US Influence in the Middle East" (2026)


✍️ CAKRANEGARA NEWS – FACT WARRIOR'S NOTE

This is the tenth article in Cakranegara News' 20-part series on the Middle East crisis. We have now published 10 of 20 articles. Articles 11-20 will follow.

Every piece of data has been cross-verified from multiple open sources. Accuracy is non-negotiable. Length is non-negotiable.


🛡️ Pejuang Fakta

Mencerahkan, Tidak Membingungkan

CakraNegara.com – Enlightening, Not Confusing



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