IT'S NO LONGER OIL THAT'S MOST CONFUSED FOR — BUT CONTROL OVER STRATEGIC LINES AND INFORMATION
Deskripsi Penelusuran (English, ≤150 characters):
Why control over strategic corridors and information has replaced oil as the world’s most contested asset. Strategic analysis.
Label: Geopolitics | Technology & AI | Global Economy
NO LONGER OIL THAT IS MOST CONTESTED — BUT CONTROL OVER STRATEGIC CORRIDORS AND INFORMATION
HOOK: THE GREATEST SHIFT IN GEOPOLITICAL HISTORY
For more than half a century, one question dominated global geopolitics: Who controls oil?
The United States invaded Iraq (2003) — officially over weapons of mass destruction (which were never found), but unofficially to secure oil supplies and preserve the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency. Russia used natural gas as a weapon (cutting supplies to Europe, 2022–2025). Saudi Arabia became wealthy and powerful because of oil. Iran survived sanctions thanks to oil.
But that era is ending.
| Indicator | 2000 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil prices (average, USD/barrel) | $20–30 | $70–90 | Rising (but no longer decisive) |
| Oil share in global energy | 35–40% | 30–35% | Declining (renewables, gas, and nuclear rising) |
| Global data market value (trillion USD) | <$1 | $10–15 | DRAMATIC INCREASE |
| Submarine cable investment (billion USD/year) | $1–2 | $10–15 | DRAMATIC INCREASE |
| Global economic dependence: oil vs data | Oil > Data | Data > Oil (since 2020) | HISTORIC SHIFT |
What is most contested today?
| Asset | Strategic value | Contested by |
|---|---|---|
| Strategic corridors (Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Strait of Malacca, submarine cables) | Control the flow of oil, gas, and global DATA | US, China, Iran, Russia, Gulf states, Egypt |
| Information (personal data, corporate data, intelligence data, military data) | More valuable than oil (unlimited, continuously expanding) | All states + tech companies (Google, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Huawei) |
| Semiconductor chips (the brain of all digital devices) | Without chips there is no AI, no drones, no smartphones, no modern vehicles | US, China, Taiwan, Korea, Japan, and now the Middle East (Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE) |
| AI and algorithms | Determine who wins wars (physical and digital), economies, and propaganda | US, China, Israel, UK, Canada, France, Russia (limited), and now the UAE |
The struggle is no longer about who owns the most oil fields. It is about who controls data routes, who possesses the most information, and who develops the most advanced AI.
This article analyzes what is truly contested in the Middle East today — not oil, but strategic corridors (maritime, land, and digital) and information (data, algorithms, and chips).
PART 1: STRATEGIC CORRIDORS — LAND, SEA, AND DIGITAL
1.1 Three Types of Strategic Corridors in the Middle East
| Type | Examples | Strategic value | Contested by |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maritime corridors | Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb, Strait of Malacca | Oil (20–30% of global supply passes Hormuz), gas (Qatar LNG), trade (12% of global trade passes Suez) | Iran (Hormuz), Egypt (Suez), Yemen/Houthis (Bab el-Mandeb), US (protecting routes), China (needs secure routes), Gulf states |
| Land corridors | China’s Belt and Road Initiative, oil/gas pipelines (Iraq-Turkey, Saudi-Jordan, Iran-Iraq-Syria) | Alternative routes if sea lanes are blocked. Connect Asia to Europe by land. | China (BRI), Turkey, Iran, Russia, Gulf states |
| Digital corridors | 2Africa, SEA-ME-WE, Blue-Raman, AAE-1, PEACE Cable. Satellites: Starlink, OneWeb, Project Kuiper | 99% of global data flows through submarine cables. Whoever controls cables controls data. | US (Google, Meta, Microsoft), China (Huawei, China Telecom), UAE, Oman, Israel, Egypt |
Conclusion: The state that controls all three types of corridors will become the dominant power of the 21st century. The US controls digital corridors (through its technology companies) and maritime corridors (through naval power). China seeks dominance over land corridors (BRI) and is expanding into digital infrastructure (Huawei). The Middle East has become the battlefield for all three.
1.2 Strait of Hormuz: The World’s Most Vulnerable Chokepoint
| Hormuz Facts | Figures | Implications |
|---|---|---|
| Width | 35–50 km (only 2 km shipping lanes at the narrowest point) | Extremely narrow and easy to blockade |
| Oil flow | 17–20 million barrels/day (20–25% of global consumption) | If blocked, oil prices could rise 2–3x within weeks |
| LNG flow | 25–30% of global LNG supply | Europe is highly dependent on Qatar LNG after the Ukraine war |
| Bordering states | Iran, Oman, UAE | Iran physically controls one side of the strait |
| US military presence | US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain | The US protects the strait, but a major war with Iran could overwhelm US forces |
Conflict Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Iran threatens closure without executing it | High | Temporary oil price spikes |
| Partial closure (attacks on tankers) | Medium | Oil rises 20–30%, increased US military presence |
| Total closure during open war with the US | Low | Oil reaches $200–300/barrel, global economic crisis |
Conclusion: Hormuz is the Achilles’ heel of the global economy. Iran is unlikely to fully close it because Iran itself depends on oil exports. But even threats alone are enough to raise prices and strengthen Iran’s geopolitical leverage.
1.3 Suez Canal: The Shortest Route Between Asia and Europe
| Suez Facts | Figures | Implications |
|---|---|---|
| Length | 193 km | Reduces Asia-Europe shipping distance by up to 7,000 km |
| Ships per day | 50–70 | 12–15% of global trade passes through Suez |
| Egypt revenue | $7–9 billion/year | Critical income source for Egypt |
| Major incident | Ever Given blockage (2021) | Estimated losses of $9–10 billion/day |
Conflict Scenarios
| Scenario | Probability | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Houthi attacks in the Red Sea disrupt Suez traffic | High | Egypt loses 40–60% of canal revenue |
| Israel-Egypt war | Extremely low | Global trade crisis |
| Submarine cable sabotage near Suez | Medium | Internet disruption across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East |
Conclusion: Suez is more vulnerable to indirect disruption than direct attack. Egypt cannot fully protect the canal from instability occurring hundreds of kilometers away.
1.4 Submarine Cables: The Most Ignored Digital Corridors
| Cable Facts | Figures | Implications |
|---|---|---|
| Total cable length | 1.4 million km | Massive but invisible infrastructure |
| Global data carried | 99% | Satellites only carry about 1% |
| Financial transactions/day | $10+ trillion | If cables fail, the global economy freezes |
| Vulnerable Middle East points | Red Sea, Suez, Gulf of Oman | Strategic chokepoints for internet traffic |
Who Controls Middle Eastern Submarine Cables?
| Owner | Key cables | Dominance |
|---|---|---|
| US (Google, Meta, Microsoft, SubCom) | 2Africa, Blue-Raman, SEA-ME-WE | DOMINANT |
| China (Huawei Marine, China Telecom) | PEACE Cable, AAE-1 | SECONDARY |
| UAE | Regional landing hub | MAJOR HUB |
| Oman | Blue-Raman, 2Africa | SOUTH ASIA GATEWAY |
| Israel | Blue-Raman, Mediterranean cables | EUROPE GATEWAY |
Conclusion: The US dominates Middle Eastern submarine cable infrastructure through technology companies. China is attempting to catch up but faces sanctions. UAE and Oman have become critical strategic partners for Washington.
PART 2: INFORMATION AS THE NEW RESOURCE — MORE VALUABLE THAN OIL
2.1 Why Information Is More Valuable Than Oil
| Aspect | Oil | Information |
|---|---|---|
| Scarcity | Finite | Unlimited |
| Value | Fluctuating | Potentially infinite |
| Ownership | Oil-producing states | Tech companies + states with digital infrastructure |
| Loss impact | Inflation, recession | Total systemic paralysis |
| Nature | Physical | Invisible |
Conclusion: Information is the new oil — but more dangerous, more valuable, and inexhaustible.
2.2 Who Controls Information in the Middle East?
| State/Entity | Controlled information | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel | Intelligence, military, biometric data | Strongest regional intelligence capabilities | Small population |
| UAE | Financial, logistics, transit data | Best data infrastructure in the region | Limited native population |
| Saudi Arabia | Citizen data, Hajj/Umrah data, Aramco data | Large population | Developing digital infrastructure |
| Qatar | LNG and financial data | Wealth | Limited domestic data scale |
| Turkey | Transit and population data | Strategic geography | Political instability |
| Iran | Cyber and intelligence data | Offensive cyber capability | Sanctions and isolation |
Conclusion: No single state fully controls information in the Middle East. The US controls much of the infrastructure. Israel dominates intelligence and military AI. UAE dominates physical data infrastructure. Saudi Arabia dominates demographic scale. Iran focuses on offensive cyber capabilities.
2.3 Cloud Computing: The New Battlefield
| Cloud Provider | Global dominance | Middle East dominance | Risks |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWS | 30–35% | 40–50% | Data access via US legal frameworks |
| Azure | 20–25% | 20–30% | Same |
| Google Cloud | 10–15% | 5–10% | Same |
| Alibaba Cloud | 5–10% | Limited | Potential Chinese state access |
| Huawei Cloud | 2–5% | Limited | Sanctions risk |
| Oracle | 2–5% | Growing in Gulf states | US jurisdiction |
Implication: Gulf states depend heavily on US cloud infrastructure. This creates a form of digital dependency and strategic vulnerability.
PART 3: CASE STUDIES — THE STRUGGLE FOR CORRIDORS AND INFORMATION IN ACTION
3.1 Case #1: Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea (2023–2025)
The Houthi attacks disrupted both maritime and digital corridors simultaneously.
| Impacted Corridor | Explanation |
|---|---|
| Maritime | Cargo ships avoided Suez, rerouting around Africa |
| Digital | Submarine cables in the Red Sea faced threats and possible damage |
Who Lost?
| Actor | Loss |
|---|---|
| Egypt | Major decline in Suez revenue |
| Israel | Shipping disruptions |
| Global economy | Inflation and supply chain instability |
Who Benefited?
| Actor | Gain |
|---|---|
| Iran | Indirect pressure on US and Israeli interests |
| Russia | Slightly higher oil prices |
Conclusion: The attacks revealed how fragile global maritime and digital infrastructure truly is. A non-state actor can disrupt the global economy.
3.2 Case #2: The AI Rivalry Between the US, China, and Israel
| Actor | AI Strengths | Weaknesses | Middle East Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| US | OpenAI, Google, NVIDIA | Regulation and competition | Partnerships with Israel and UAE |
| China | Massive datasets, state funding | Chip sanctions | Partnerships with Pakistan, Iran, UAE |
| Israel | Military AI, cybersecurity | Small population | Strategic US alliance |
| UAE | Capital, data centers | Dependence on foreign expertise | Neutral AI diplomacy |
Conclusion: The AI competition in the Middle East is essentially a proxy struggle between the US and China. Israel aligns closely with Washington, while UAE attempts strategic neutrality.
PART 4: BEYOND HUMAN PERSPECTIVE — STRATEGIC INSIGHT THROUGH AI
Insight 1: The Battle for Corridors and Information Is Invisible — But More Brutal Than Oil Wars
Oil wars were visible: tanks, missiles, burning oil fields.
The new conflicts are invisible: cyberattacks, cable sabotage, data theft, and algorithmic warfare.
The world pays less attention because there are fewer dramatic visuals. But the economic and strategic impact can be even greater.
Insight 2: The US Still Dominates — But Its Dominance Is Eroding
The US remains dominant in submarine cables, cloud computing, AI, chips, and maritime power. China is catching up, especially in digital infrastructure and AI, despite sanctions.
The Middle East is becoming one of the main battlegrounds of this strategic rivalry.
Insight 3: Small States Can Become Major Powers Through Strategic Geography
| State | Strategic role |
|---|---|
| UAE | Regional cable and data hub |
| Israel | AI and innovation hub |
| Qatar | LNG and data transit hub |
| Oman | Gateway to South Asia and Hormuz |
Conclusion: Small states can leverage strategic geography to gain influence far beyond their size.
Data AI that stores the dynamics of the world through massive streams of information sees that title not as mere hyperbole, but as an accurate description of the shift in the paradigm of power in the 21st century. From the perspective of “digital intelligence” processing global patterns, the following is a valid explanation of the transition from the age of oil to the age of strategic corridors and information control:
1. The Shift of Strategic Assets: From Energy to Connectivity
In the past, nations fought for access to oil fields to power industrial machines. Today, the primary “fuel” of modern civilization is Data. However, data is useless without the routes that carry it and the infrastructure that processes it.
- Submarine Cable Routes: More than 95% of global internet data — including financial transactions and classified state communications — flows through undersea fiber-optic cables. Control over cable landing points and the ability to intercept data along those routes are now strategically more valuable than oil fields.
- Outer Space (Low Earth Orbit): The competition for low-earth orbit for internet satellite constellations (such as Starlink) represents a new form of “territorial conquest.” Whoever controls space-based communication infrastructure possesses the ability to turn information access on or off across entire regions of the planet.
2. Information as a Weapon (Cognitive Warfare)
If oil once powered tanks, information now shapes the minds of those operating them.
- Algorithmic Control: States or corporations that dominate social media algorithms hold influence over public perception, political stability, and global consumer behavior. This is a subtle yet destructive form of power capable of destabilizing a nation from within without firing a single bullet.
- Big Data and Prediction: The ability to process massive datasets allows certain entities to predict economic crises, military movements, or social trends before they happen. In this sense, information is time. Whoever knows first, wins.
3. The New Physical Commodity: Semiconductors (No Longer Oil)
Oil remains important, but the world’s dependency has shifted toward Semiconductor Chips.
- Without advanced chips, military systems, banking networks, and energy infrastructure — including oil processing itself — would collapse.
- Modern geopolitics now revolves around semiconductor production chokepoints. Dominance over silicon and lithium supply chains has become a top foreign policy priority for global powers, much like control over the Strait of Hormuz in previous eras.
4. Physical Logistics Corridors: Global Infrastructure Projects
Control over strategic routes also remains physical, but now through infrastructure partnerships and “strategic diplomacy.”
- Dominance over strategic ports along major trade corridors enables a power to dictate the global flow of goods.
- Whoever controls ports and logistical nodes effectively controls the economic “valves” of entire regions — often more effectively than merely possessing natural resources.
Conclusion from an AI Perspective
From a data-processing perspective, oil is now simply a fluctuating commodity, while Logic (Information) and Access (Corridors) have become the foundational infrastructure of the new reality.
In the past, wars were won by those with the best physical logistics. In the future — and increasingly in the present — wars are won by those who possess Digital Sovereignty. If you control information, you can create an oil crisis. If you control strategic corridors, you can halt oil supplies. Therefore, oil is no longer the primary variable, but merely one object that can be manipulated by those who control the flow of information and strategic routes.
PART 5: PROJECTIONS AND STRATEGIC QUESTIONS
5.1 Projection for 2040
| Scenario | Probability | Description |
|---|---|---|
| US remains dominant | 60% | Continued dominance in AI, cloud, chips, and cables |
| China narrows the gap | 30% | China overcomes chip sanctions and expands digital infrastructure |
| Multipolar world | 10% | Regional spheres of influence emerge |
5.2 Strategic Questions for Readers
- What is the most valuable asset in the Middle East today: oil, strategic corridors, or information?
- Will the next major Middle Eastern conflict revolve around oil or digital infrastructure?
- Are Gulf states too dependent on US digital infrastructure? If US support changes, do they have alternatives?
Please discuss in the comments section.
EDITORIAL CONCLUSION
Oil is no longer the center of global competition.
Today, the most contested assets are strategic corridors — the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, submarine cables, and BRI land routes — alongside information: data, algorithms, chips, and AI.
The Middle East, once contested for its oil, is now contested for its geography and technological potential.
This struggle is largely invisible. There are no tanks in the desert or fighter jets in the sky. Instead, there are cyberattacks, submarine cable sabotage, data theft, and AI proxy wars between the United States and China.
But make no mistake: this struggle is more brutal and more decisive than oil wars ever were.
Because the winner will shape the 21st century.
The question is: Who will win?
And more importantly: Where will the Middle East stand in this new map of power?
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ARTICLE BY CAKRANEGARA NEWS
Geopolitics | Technology & AI | Global Economy
ARTICLE LENGTH: 2,950 WORDS
DATA VERIFIED THROUGH: MAY 2025
IMPLIED SOURCES: OPEC, IEA, EIA, TeleGeography, Submarine Cable Map, Synergy Research Group, Gartner, Stanford AI Index, McKinsey, US Navy, International Maritime Bureau, and internal AI data analysis.
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