TAIWAN, BEIJING, AND TRUMP – IS THE WORLD WITNESSING THE MOST DANGEROUS "NEGOTIATION" OF THIS CENTURY?


By: Fact Warrior

Category: In-Depth Geopolitical Analysis

Accuracy Level: Based on International Legal Documents & Verified Facts

Introduction: The Fundamental Misnomer of "Negotiation"

From the very beginning, the title above contains a fundamental error. What is happening between Beijing and Taipei, and Washington's involvement in it, is not a negotiation in the classical diplomatic sense.

In international law, a negotiation presupposes two equal sovereign parties sitting down to reach an agreement. However, legally speaking, Taiwan is not a sovereign state. This status has been definitively established by the international community through UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 (1971) .

So, if it's not a negotiation, what is the correct term for this phenomenon? The world is witnessing "Brinkmanship" —a game of tug-of-war at the edge of the abyss—involving three main actors:

1. Beijing: Asserting sovereignty through economic and military power.

2. Taipei: Struggling to maintain de facto autonomy without a formal declaration.

3. Washington (specifically the Trump figure): Using Taiwan as an "ace card" in a new Cold War against China.

This article will deeply analyze why this situation is the most dangerous since the Cold War, grounded in legal facts, military data, and policy analysis.

Chapter 1: The Often-Ignored Legal Foundation

To understand the core of the problem, we must go back to 1971. At that time, the UN passed Resolution 2758. The content of this resolution is short but powerful:

"Decides to restore all its rights to the People's Republic of China and to recognize the representatives of its Government as the only legitimate representatives of China to the United Nations, and to expel forthwith the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek from the place which they unlawfully occupy at the United Nations."

In-Depth Analysis:

This resolution does not explicitly mention the word "Taiwan," but it legally buries any ambition for Taiwanese independence. The UN Office of Legal Affairs has officially stated that the UN regards "Taiwan as a province of China with no separate status."

However, the United States created a legal loophole through the "Taiwan Relations Act" (TRA) of 1979. The TRA is a domestic US law that, contradictorily, acknowledges "One China" but also mandates the US to provide defensive weapons to Taiwan. This is the source of the primary ambiguity and danger: A nation (the US) unilaterally creates its own law that contradicts its own diplomatic commitments (the Three US-China Joint Communiqués).

Chapter 2: Trump's Strategy – "Transactional Power" and the Danger of Ambiguity

Donald Trump does not view Taiwan through an ideological or moral lens, but rather a "Transactional" one. To him, Taiwan is a bargaining chip to confront China.

Field Facts (Verified Data):

During his term (2017-2021), Trump authorized 11 arms sales to Taiwan—a record high for a single US presidential period. Key points:

1. Normalization of Unofficial Relations: Took a phone call from President Tsai Ing-wen (the first breakthrough since 1979).

2. Offensive Weapons: Unlike his predecessors who focused more on defensive systems, Trump sold offensive weapons like SLAM-ER (long-range missiles) and HIMARS (mobile rocket launchers) .

3. Record Value: Total sales reached nearly **$20 billion USD**, including one package of F-16V jets worth $8 billion, the most advanced fighter jet ever sold by the US to Taiwan.

Analysis of the Danger:

For Beijing, these arms sales violate the August 17, 1982 Communiqué, in which the US promised to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan. In Beijing's eyes, Trump was not negotiating stability; he was arming a "rebellious province."

Chapter 3: Beijing's Response – The Language of "People's War"

China did not respond to Trump's rhetoric with diplomatic pleasantries. They responded with real military action on the ground.

Quantitative Data (2020-2021):

· Drastic Increase: In the first half of 2021 alone, China conducted 20 military exercises involving amphibious landing simulations and island seizures. This number exceeded the total of 13 exercises for all of 2020.

· Flight Record: On June 15, 2021, China sent 28 fighter jets (including 14 J-16s and 4 H-6 bombers) entering Taiwan's "ADIZ" (Air Defense Identification Zone) in a single day. This is the highest number ever recorded.

What does this mean?

Beijing is not just warning Taipei. They are building an "A2/AD Bubble" (Anti-Access/Area Denial). They are demonstrating that if the US intervenes in a Taiwan conflict, the US Navy would face a risk of annihilation in the South China Sea.

Chapter 4: Why This Is NOT a Negotiation?

Here lies the core danger that many observers fail to understand.

In a normal negotiation, there is room for compromise (e.g., "I retreat 10 meters, you retreat 10 meters"). However, in the case of Taiwan:

1. For Beijing: Compromise means loss of sovereignty. This is absolutely non-negotiable. The "One China" slogan is the foundation of the Chinese Communist Party's legitimacy.

2. For Semi-Official Taiwan: They have no authority to "negotiate" with Beijing because they are legally subordinate.

3. For Trump (or any US candidate): They are playing with fire. Recognizing Taiwanese independence would trigger war. Abandoning Taiwan would destroy US credibility in Asia.

What is currently happening is a "Trial and Error" process: The US is testing how far it can push without triggering war. China is testing whether the US is truly willing to die for Taiwan.

Final Conclusion (Detailed Elaboration)

So, is the world witnessing the "most dangerous negotiation"?

No. The world is witnessing a "Systematic Miscommunication" driven by legal ambiguity.

· There is no negotiation because legally, the subjects are not equal.

· What exists is a "Conventional Nuclear Test": Every Chinese fighter jet flight across the Taiwan Strait, every Trump weapons contract, is a move in a chess game where there are no referee rules.

· Danger of the Century: The danger is not from an evil plan, but from miscalculation. If one day, due to domestic political pressure, a US president (perhaps Trump or a successor) mistakenly believes that Beijing is "just bluffing" and officially recognizes Taiwan, then China would have no choice but war, because backing down from the "One China" position would mean political destruction for the ruling regime.

Closing Statement from the Fact Warrior:

Do not be deceived by the word "negotiation." Nothing is being negotiated. What exists are two giants adjusting their breathing rhythms, ready to strike if the opponent steps too far.

Sources: UN Resolutions, Ministry of Defense Documents, US Congressional Arms Sales Data, SCMP/People's Daily Military Analysis.


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